You’re likely familiar with the doomsday scenarios globalists have been painting for a no-deal Brexit.
The imagined consequences are often based on loosely-defined circumstances. And they forecast calamities like grounded airlines, endless queues at customs points and businesses all but shut down by the ensuing bureaucratic chaos.
But the reality — according to pro-Brexit lawmakers from Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative party, many of whom prefer no deal to her deal — is that there’s little to worry about.
Granted lawmakers don’t accept May’s withdrawal deal on Tuesday or fall short in ratifying it before March 2017, Britain would be on course for an unregulated Brexit according to DPA.
Britain requested an extension on top of the two-year Brexit negotiating process back in March 2017.
But if a deal can’t be reached by that time, the EU rules would no longer apply in Britain, meaning the UK opts out of shared arrangements such as trade deals with third countries as well as common air traffic rules, as reported by DPA.
The land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remains a problem, and is at the heart of the Brexit negotiations.
There’s a lot of uncertainty for British citizens living in the EU and EU citizens living in Britain.
CBI warns of profound consequences of no-deal Brexit
On Friday the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) cautioned that poor economic consequences of a no-deal Brexit ‘would be profound, widespread and lasting’.
‘Businesses would face new costs and tariffs,’ CBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn said in a speech.
‘Our ports would be disrupted, separating firms from the parts they need to supply their customers,’ he added.
And while Eurosceptics put this down as form of ‘project fear’ to persuade people to accept May’s deal, there’s more to it than that.
Both sides according to Eurosceptics would be able to employ a series of rapid, sectoral mini-deals to minimise disruption before they negotiate an alternative, perhaps Canada-style deal after Brexit.
Two of the largest budget airlines active in Britain — Ryanair and EasyJet, anticipate little disruption from a no-deal Brexit.
This week, Jean-Marc Puissesseau, head of the French ports of Boulogne-Calais, told BBC he’s been preparing for a no-deal Brexit for a year and ‘will be ready’ in the event Britain leaves the EU without a deal, as reported by DPA.
In regards to checks for illegal migrants trying to reach Britain from France, Puissesseau said:
‘We will not check the trucks more than we are doing today with the migrants.’
In parliament on Wednesday, senior member of May’s cabinet, Environment Secretary Michael Gove, said there’s been ‘some exaggerated claims about the impact of a no-deal Brexit, and the British economy is resilient.’ However, when questioned about the potential impacts on farmers, he agreed it was one of Britain’s ‘most vulnerable sectors’ and ‘would be significantly adversely affected in the short term’.
However, any short-term damage will be more than offset by the long-term, liberal trade deals that Britain plans to sign with major non-EU economies, like the United States, China and India.
May falls short of Doomsday reports
After announcing plans for a no-deal Brexit as an ‘operational priority’ for the British government, May emphasised measures for possible post Brexit problems ‘such as the flow of traffic into different ports here in the UK’.
Stopping short of previous doom forecasts issued by her government and the central bank.
In a government forecast in late November, Britain’s economy would be 3.9% smaller in 15 years’ time than it would be if the country remained in the EU, under her withdrawal agreement.
GDP would fall even further, by 9.3% over the same period, if we saw a no-deal Brexit outcome it said.
According to DPA, The Bank of England projects the same day that the pound would depreciate by 25% against the US dollar in a ‘disorderly’ scenario.
Meaning inflation could jump to 6.5%, and unemployment to 7.5%, leaving a declining GDP to fall by nearly 8%, the bank said.
Pro-EU economist Andrew Sentence and former Bank of England adviser, tweeted that both forecasts appeared to ‘support political objectives’.
These debates show just how far Britain has moved away from the concept of Brexit that the British people voted for.
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