In 2016 the British voted in a referendum to leave the EU. Prime Minister David Cameron resigned and Theresa May was eventually elected into office.
One person who predicted this shock result was Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics.
But now, according to Business Insider, he thinks Britain won’t be leaving the EU. At all.
Port Phillip Insider editor Kris Sayce made a similar prediction back in April:
‘We’ve said from the start that we don’t believe Brexit will actually happen.
‘We just don’t buy the idea that the ‘Deep State’ and global bureaucracy will allow a sovereign nation (the UK) to leave the clutches of the European Union.’
Tombs’ latest prediction is along the same lines. He believes that Britain and the EU will eventually reach a transition deal… But at the end of that process, the whole concept of Brexit might get dumped.
One major reason was a change in public sentiment. The poll back in June 2016 pushed the idea over the line with 51.9%.
Now, according to a YouGov report, the tables have turned. In a survey, only 42% responded that they thought Britain was right to leave the EU.
And with May and the EU struggling to agree on terms, Tombs might be spot on.
The Brexit negotiations have been troubled form the beginning. The EU’s chief negotiator called Britain’s Brexit deal ‘impossible’. He claimed they wanted to retain the membership benefits of the EU without any of the restrictions.
At the moment, the big issue is Ireland. Because Northern Island is part of the UK, it is included in Brexit terms. But the Republic of Ireland, being a separate state, is staying.
In order to prevent a hard border with the Irish Republic, May hoped to keep some ‘regulatory alignment’ between the EU and Northern Ireland.
It didn’t go down well.
Without this alignment, goods and services will not be able to cross the border in Ireland easily. But introducing the alignment would influence regulations on the Irish Republic, who have not agreed to the proposal.
If the proposal sticks, this could be the end for Brexit.
Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon argued that if one part of the UK can ‘retain regulatory alignment with the EU and effectively stay in the single market,’ then other parts should have the same freedom.
Which is essentially proposing a UK-wide ‘soft’ version of Brexit.
With all the confusion, The Independent is arguing this might be the end for Theresa May.