Australian election coming up

One Nation to ‘hang’ Queensland’s Crap Anna and Rotten Tim

The next Queensland election is likely to see Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party re-establishing itself as the power broker in the next state parliament.

Some analysts are predicting that the increased support for One Nation is so high that the election result will ‘hang’ Queensland’s Parliament for the next four years.

One Nation has not held a parliamentary state seat in Queensland since 2009.

According to latest polling, the party may attract as much as 18% of the primary vote, although experts concede the figures vary widely across Queensland.

The party is set to contest every state seat, excepting those held by the Katter’s Australian Party, Bundamba held by ALP’s Jo-Ann Miller and the LNP’s Mark Robinson in Oodgeroo.

One Nation party tacticians have also recommended that every sitting MP should be placed last on One Nation How-To-Vote cards, in order to deflect criticism of back room deals and underhanded tactics.

According to the ABC’s James Ashby, Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff said that if they proceed with the party’s recommendations, both major parties would find themselves in ‘a dangerous predicament’.

Certainly it doesn’t leave One Nation in a dangerous predicament, but certainly any sitting member would find that quite alarming.

Mr Ashby believes that the major parties are worried.

In far North Queensland, both the LNP and the ALP have steadily lost support, with the ALP losing as much as 10% of the primary vote. The LNP is faring better, but One Nation has swept up most of the disenfranchised, potentially attracting as much as 20% of the primary vote.

In South East Queensland, the major parties are neck and neck. In the remaining regions, which include the seats of Nanango, Southern Downs and Warrego, there has been a significant loss of support for both major parties. In coastal areas like Gladstone and Bundaberg, the ALP is on the nose.

Recently, compulsory preferential voting has been re-established in the state and Queenslanders will now be required to number each box on the ballot paper. For analysts, this reform makes the election outcome very hard to predict.

One Nation is set to take full advantage.

We have no choice but to indicate to voters a recommendation on how we would think those preferences should flow’, said Mr Ashby to the ABC:

But ultimately it needs to come down to the voter making an informed decision of their own — they own their preferences, not the political parties.

It’s only when the voter understands the political system that they take control of their vote.’

According to many experts, support for One Nation is continuing to grow in marginal electorates like Callide (LNP) and Keppel (ALP).

If they fall to One Nation candidates, it is likely that Queensland politics will again take centre stage.

Duncan Wade

Duncan Wade

Duncan Wade has been working in the publishing and newspaper industry for 30 years. During that time, he has worked for numerous publications, mostly in regional areas. He has an interest in the big issues, the economy, politics and defence. Duncan believes that Australians have been extraordinarily lucky over the years, but there are some serious challenges on the horizon. He is a father of three girls, lives in a regional area and previously a tragic of his beloved Lions — the Fitzroy Football Club.

Comments: 4

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  1. I voted one nation in the seat of Barron River for the first time and will again the sitting ALP Craig Crawford got 33% of first pref vote the LNP Michael Trout got 30.3% One Nation got 15%. So the ALP won with only a third of the voters agreeing with ALP policy. When will we realise a pass mark is 50% if you don’t get 50% then you don’t get elected. That to me is democracy!

  2. Hi Phil,
    Where you have preferential voting, candidates either get in because they are liked by 50% or more of the voters, or, where no candidate makes it on their own merits, the candidate who is least disliked by the voters makes the cut. Is there anything to suggest that the ALP candidate was not the least disliked candidate at the last election?

  3. I think if One Nation became the power, then you would see real trash politics coming through. The polices of One Nation are limited and not very useful. They seem to be only interested in who comes to Australia, who lives in Australia, and how Australia should become insular. I look at Trump, I see the divisiveness he has caused in America. You are either Left or Right. All they are doing is shouting at each other, and not actually debating. People may say, great, he is upsetting the world order and they will go running to Trump to appease him and redo deals. Well, NAFTA, not greatly changed, just a couple of tweaks here and there. Britain saying it is interested in doing deals with Russia, EU thinking of doing its own military. ONP would upset our Asian neighbours and may make it more difficult to deal with them. Just remember, there are consequences of voting for parties that are too far Right or Left. The LNP is leaning more Right these days. There are consequences of voting for parties with a very narrow and simplistic outlook. And to be honest, I do not see any leadership appeal in any of the ONP sitting members or people putting their hands up for elections. Look at Clive Palmer’s party. Abject failure and ONP in Fed Govt has been an abject failure as well.